Every 2026 regular season game: graded where it has been played, projected where it hasn't, with a projected final score for each. Projected scores split the projected total by the projected margin; the total uses the Vegas total plus the model's adjustments when a line is posted. The model was trained on 2015 to 2025 only, so nothing here has seen the 2026 results it is graded on.
"Closer" counts the games where each side's number landed nearer the final result. Margin uses the projected point spread; totals use the projected combined score. Disagreeing with Vegas is not the same as having an edge: in 2018 to 2025 the spread model went about 52% when it differed by 3+ points.
Points vs spread is each team's final margin minus the Vegas line: +10 means they did 10 points better than Vegas expected. Points vs total is the game's combined score minus the posted over/under. Tap a column to sort. Since 2015, early-season results against the line have not carried over to the rest of the season.
Regular season totals from play by play. Tap a player to see his per game averages since 2021 by weather (domes, outdoors, cold below 40°F, wind of 15 mph or more) and by quarter. Quarter patterns are worth a look but don't lean on them: a player's share of yards in the first quarter or first half barely repeats from one season to the next (correlation about 0.05), so the projections use the norm for his position and the point spread instead.
Average 4th quarter points by the margin after three quarters, every game since 2015 (overtime excluded).
From 20,000 simulations of the remaining games, using each team's current form plus uncertainty about how good each team really is. Playoff odds break ties at random rather than with real NFL tiebreakers. Range is the 10th to 90th percentile of final wins.