Vikings vs Packers
Gridline projects the Green Bay Packers to beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-20 (60% to win). Vegas has GB −3 with the total at 42.
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Packers by 3.1 | GB −3 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 42.9 | 42 |
| Total (stats only) | 41.7 | |
| Win probability | Packers 60% · Vikings 40% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.1 points more bullish on the Packers than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: over 42 by 0.9 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins (Vikings) vs Jordan Love (Packers). Backup starting: Kirk Cousins.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Vikings +3 −109 (BetRivers); Packers -2.5 −115 (BetUS); over 42 −107 (LowVig); under 42.5 −115 (DraftKings).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden (GB WR) | 34% | +192 |
| Christian Watson (GB WR) | 33% | +207 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN WR) | 31% | +221 |
| Aaron Jones (MIN RB) | 31% | +226 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB TE) | 26% | +282 |
| MarShawn Lloyd (GB RB) | 25% | +302 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love (GB) | 238 | 20% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson (GB WR) | 70 | |
| Matthew Golden (GB WR) | 69 | |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN WR) | 60 | |
| Jordan Mason (MIN RB) | 46 | |
| Tucker Kraft (GB TE) | 37 | |
| Jordan Addison (MIN WR) | 36 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Vikings vs Packers?
- Gridline projects the Green Bay Packers to win 23-20, with a 60% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Vikings vs Packers?
- Gridline's total is 42.9 against a Vegas total of 42, over by 0.9 points.
- Will the Packers cover the spread?
- Vegas has GB −3. Gridline's margin is 3.1 for the Packers, a gap of 0.1 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Minnesota Vikings 2026 projections
- Green Bay Packers 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.