Steelers vs Bengals
Gridline projects the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-22 (67% to win). Vegas has CIN −3.5 with the total at 49.5.
Sun Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET · Paycor Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Bengals by 5.6 | CIN −3.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 48.9 | 49.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 45.2 | |
| Win probability | Bengals 67% · Steelers 33% |
- Spread: Gridline is 2.1 points more bullish on the Bengals than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 49.5 by 0.6 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) vs Joe Burrow (Bengals).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Steelers +3.5 −108 (LowVig); Bengals -3.5 −102 (LowVig); over 49 −110 (BetUS); under 49.5 −104 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown (CIN RB) | 45% | +123 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR) | 43% | +133 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT RB) | 42% | +139 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN WR) | 39% | +158 |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT RB) | 32% | +211 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT WR) | 27% | +269 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 278 | 35% |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 224 | 16% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown (CIN RB) | 55 | 30 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR) | 84 | |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT RB) | 82 | |
| Tee Higgins (CIN WR) | 73 | |
| DK Metcalf (PIT WR) | 52 | |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT RB) | 45 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Steelers vs Bengals?
- Gridline projects the Cincinnati Bengals to win 27-22, with a 67% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Steelers vs Bengals?
- Gridline's total is 48.9 against a Vegas total of 49.5, under by 0.6 points.
- Will the Bengals cover the spread?
- Vegas has CIN −3.5. Gridline's margin is 5.6 for the Bengals, a gap of 2.1 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 projections
- Cincinnati Bengals 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.