Texans vs Browns
Gridline projects the Houston Texans to beat the Cleveland Browns 22-17 (67% to win). Vegas has HOU −4.5 with the total at 40.5.
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Texans by 5.7 | HOU −4.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 38.9 | 40.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 40.8 | |
| Win probability | Browns 33% · Texans 67% |
- Spread: Gridline is 1.2 points more bullish on the Texans than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 40.5 by 1.6 points. A 1.5+ point lean, the setup that went 55.1% in 2018 to 2025 (a best case).
- Quarterbacks: C.J. Stroud (Texans) vs Deshaun Watson (Browns).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Texans -4.5 +100 (LowVig); Browns +4.5 −105 (DraftKings); over 40.5 −105 (FanDuel); under 40.5 −107 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB) | 37% | +170 |
| Woody Marks (HOU RB) | 35% | +182 |
| Nico Collins (HOU WR) | 29% | +244 |
| Tank Dell (HOU WR) | 25% | +298 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU WR) | 24% | +326 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE TE) | 23% | +331 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson (CLE) | 197 | 10% |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 223 | 16% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks (HOU RB) | 58 | |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE RB) | 52 | |
| Nico Collins (HOU WR) | 52 | |
| Tank Dell (HOU WR) | 49 | |
| KC Concepcion (CLE WR) | 49 | |
| Denzel Boston (CLE WR) | 48 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Texans vs Browns?
- Gridline projects the Houston Texans to win 22-17, with a 67% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Texans vs Browns?
- Gridline's total is 38.9 against a Vegas total of 40.5, under by 1.6 points.
- Will the Texans cover the spread?
- Vegas has HOU −4.5. Gridline's margin is 5.7 for the Texans, a gap of 1.2 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Houston Texans 2026 projections
- Cleveland Browns 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.