Chiefs vs Falcons
Gridline projects the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Atlanta Falcons 25-22 (59% to win). Vegas has KC −3 with the total at 47.
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Chiefs by 2.9 | KC −3 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 47.7 | 47 |
| Total (stats only) | 45.5 | |
| Win probability | Falcons 41% · Chiefs 59% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.1 points more bullish on the Falcons than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: over 47 by 0.7 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Chiefs -3 −105 (LowVig); Falcons +3.5 −118 (BetRivers); over 47 −105 (Bovada); under 47.5 −110 (MyBookie).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) | 51% | −105 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL RB) | 50% | +102 |
| Rashee Rice (KC WR) | 36% | +179 |
| Travis Kelce (KC TE) | 32% | +212 |
| Drake London (ATL WR) | 31% | +219 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL TE) | 27% | +266 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) | 209 | 12% |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 247 | 23% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL RB) | 83 | 28 |
| Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) | 83 | 20 |
| Drake London (ATL WR) | 66 | |
| Rashee Rice (KC WR) | 62 | |
| Travis Kelce (KC TE) | 50 | |
| Xavier Worthy (KC WR) | 42 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Chiefs vs Falcons?
- Gridline projects the Kansas City Chiefs to win 25-22, with a 59% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Chiefs vs Falcons?
- Gridline's total is 47.7 against a Vegas total of 47, over by 0.7 points.
- Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
- Vegas has KC −3. Gridline's margin is 2.9 for the Chiefs, a gap of 0.1 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Kansas City Chiefs 2026 projections
- Atlanta Falcons 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.