Jaguars vs Titans
Gridline projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Tennessee Titans 29-16 (84% to win). Vegas has JAX −10.5 with the total at 46.5.
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Jaguars by 12.6 | JAX −10.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 44.7 | 46.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 41.9 | |
| Win probability | Titans 16% · Jaguars 84% |
- Spread: Gridline is 2.1 points more bullish on the Jaguars than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 46.5 by 1.8 points. A 1.5+ point lean, the setup that went 55.1% in 2018 to 2025 (a best case).
- Quarterbacks: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) vs Cam Ward (Titans).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Jaguars -10.5 −110 (BetUS); Titans +11 −110 (BetMGM); over 46 −110 (BetMGM); under 46.5 −107 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard (TEN RB) | 46% | +116 |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB) | 43% | +133 |
| Parker Washington (JAX WR) | 38% | +160 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX RB) | 35% | +183 |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAX WR) | 30% | +233 |
| Brenton Strange (JAX TE) | 28% | +260 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 250 | 23% |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | 192 | 10% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard (TEN RB) | 72 | |
| Parker Washington (JAX WR) | 64 | |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB) | 56 | |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAX WR) | 52 | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN WR) | 49 | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX RB) | 37 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Jaguars vs Titans?
- Gridline projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to win 29-16, with a 84% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Jaguars vs Titans?
- Gridline's total is 44.7 against a Vegas total of 46.5, under by 1.8 points.
- Will the Jaguars cover the spread?
- Vegas has JAX −10.5. Gridline's margin is 12.6 for the Jaguars, a gap of 2.1 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 projections
- Tennessee Titans 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.