Chargers vs Ravens
Gridline projects the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 22-17 (65% to win). Vegas has BAL −4.5 with the total at 38.5.
Mon Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Ravens by 5.0 | BAL −4.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 38.1 | 38.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 40.2 | |
| Win probability | Ravens 65% · Chargers 35% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.5 points more bullish on the Ravens than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 38.5 by 0.4 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs Tyler Huntley (Ravens). Backup starting: Tyler Huntley.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Chargers +4.5 −107 (LowVig); Ravens -4 −110 (BetUS); over 38.5 −110 (DraftKings); under 39 −108 (Bovada).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL RB) | 47% | +115 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL WR) | 34% | +190 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC RB) | 28% | +257 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL TE) | 21% | +385 |
| Justice Hill (BAL RB) | 20% | +403 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC RB) | 18% | +465 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley (BAL) | 179 | 8% |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 192 | 10% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry (BAL RB) | 74 | |
| Zay Flowers (BAL WR) | 66 | |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC RB) | 41 | |
| Tre Harris (LAC WR) | 32 | |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith (LAC WR) | 24 | |
| Oronde Gadsden II (LAC TE) | 23 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Chargers vs Ravens?
- Gridline projects the Baltimore Ravens to win 22-17, with a 65% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Chargers vs Ravens?
- Gridline's total is 38.1 against a Vegas total of 38.5, under by 0.4 points.
- Will the Ravens cover the spread?
- Vegas has BAL −4.5. Gridline's margin is 5.0 for the Ravens, a gap of 0.5 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Los Angeles Chargers 2026 projections
- Baltimore Ravens 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.