Patriots vs Lions
Gridline projects the Detroit Lions to beat the New England Patriots 28-22 (69% to win). Vegas has DET −2.5 with the total at 49.5.
Sun Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Lions by 6.2 | DET −2.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 49.9 | 49.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 52.0 | |
| Win probability | Lions 69% · Patriots 31% |
- Spread: Gridline is 3.7 points more bullish on the Lions than Vegas. That clears the 3-point gap where the stats model went 54.8% against the spread in 2018 to 2025, a best case; spreads have no proven edge.
- Total: over 49.5 by 0.4 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Drake Maye (Patriots) vs Jared Goff (Lions).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Patriots +3 −120 (BetUS); Lions -2.5 −114 (BetRivers); over 49.5 −108 (Bovada); under 50.5 −113 (BetRivers).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB) | 60% | −153 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) | 36% | +176 |
| Jameson Williams (DET WR) | 34% | +199 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB) | 33% | +202 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET TE) | 31% | +226 |
| A.J. Brown (NE WR) | 27% | +272 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | 260 | 27% |
| Drake Maye (NE) | 255 | 25% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB) | 87 | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) | 77 | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB) | 37 | 22 |
| Jameson Williams (DET WR) | 56 | |
| A.J. Brown (NE WR) | 53 | |
| Mack Hollins (NE WR) | 48 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Patriots vs Lions?
- Gridline projects the Detroit Lions to win 28-22, with a 69% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Patriots vs Lions?
- Gridline's total is 49.9 against a Vegas total of 49.5, over by 0.4 points.
- Will the Lions cover the spread?
- Vegas has DET −2.5. Gridline's margin is 6.2 for the Lions, a gap of 3.7 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- New England Patriots 2026 projections
- Detroit Lions 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.