Bills vs Jets
Gridline projects the Buffalo Bills to beat the New York Jets 29-20 (75% to win). Vegas has BUF −8 with the total at 51.
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Bills by 8.8 | BUF −8 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 48.7 | 51 |
| Total (stats only) | 45.3 | |
| Win probability | Jets 25% · Bills 75% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.8 points more bullish on the Bills than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 51 by 2.3 points. A 1.5+ point lean, the setup that went 55.1% in 2018 to 2025 (a best case).
- Quarterbacks: Josh Allen (Bills) vs Geno Smith (Jets).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Bills -7.5 −109 (LowVig); Jets +9 −125 (BetUS); over 50.5 −110 (BetRivers); under 51 −107 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF RB) | 55% | −120 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ RB) | 38% | +164 |
| DJ Moore (BUF WR) | 34% | +195 |
| Braelon Allen (NYJ RB) | 33% | +203 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR) | 33% | +207 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF WR) | 31% | +227 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 244 | 22% |
| Geno Smith (NYJ) | 219 | 15% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF RB) | 91 | |
| Breece Hall (NYJ RB) | 56 | 21 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR) | 62 | |
| Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ WR) | 59 | |
| Braelon Allen (NYJ RB) | 58 | |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF WR) | 52 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Bills vs Jets?
- Gridline projects the Buffalo Bills to win 29-20, with a 75% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Bills vs Jets?
- Gridline's total is 48.7 against a Vegas total of 51, under by 2.3 points.
- Will the Bills cover the spread?
- Vegas has BUF −8. Gridline's margin is 8.8 for the Bills, a gap of 0.8 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Buffalo Bills 2026 projections
- New York Jets 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.