49ers vs Cowboys
Gridline projects the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Dallas Cowboys 28-27 (54% to win). Vegas has SF −4 with the total at 55.5.
Sun Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | 49ers by 1.2 | SF −4 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 55.4 | 55.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 53.1 | |
| Win probability | Cowboys 46% · 49ers 54% |
- Spread: Gridline is 2.8 points more bullish on the Cowboys than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 55.5 by 0.1 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Brock Purdy (49ers) vs Dak Prescott (Cowboys).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): 49ers -4 −105 (LowVig); Cowboys +4.5 −115 (DraftKings); over 55.5 −107 (LowVig); under 56 −110 (BetUS).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF RB) | 60% | −147 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL RB) | 54% | −117 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR) | 45% | +123 |
| George Kittle (SF TE) | 40% | +150 |
| George Pickens (DAL WR) | 32% | +209 |
| Kaelon Black (SF RB) | 31% | +224 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 265 | 29% |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 260 | 27% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF RB) | 60 | 41 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR) | 92 | |
| Javonte Williams (DAL RB) | 66 | |
| George Pickens (DAL WR) | 63 | |
| George Kittle (SF TE) | 62 | |
| Kaelon Black (SF RB) | 44 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win 49ers vs Cowboys?
- Gridline projects the San Francisco 49ers to win 28-27, with a 54% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for 49ers vs Cowboys?
- Gridline's total is 55.4 against a Vegas total of 55.5, under by 0.1 points.
- Will the 49ers cover the spread?
- Vegas has SF −4. Gridline's margin is 1.2 for the 49ers, a gap of 2.8 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- San Francisco 49ers 2026 projections
- Dallas Cowboys 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.