Dolphins vs Colts
Gridline projects the Indianapolis Colts to beat the Miami Dolphins 20-17 (60% to win). Vegas has IND −4.5 with the total at 37.5.
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Colts by 3.2 | IND −4.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 37.0 | 37.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 44.2 | |
| Win probability | Colts 60% · Dolphins 40% |
- Spread: Gridline is 1.3 points more bullish on the Dolphins than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 37.5 by 0.5 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Malik Willis (Dolphins) vs Daniel Jones (Colts).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Dolphins +4.5 −107 (LowVig); Colts -3.5 −115 (FanDuel); over 37.5 −106 (LowVig); under 38.5 −115 (FanDuel).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND RB) | 50% | +101 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA RB) | 31% | +221 |
| Tyler Warren (IND TE) | 31% | +227 |
| Keenan Allen (IND WR) | 25% | +295 |
| Josh Downs (IND WR) | 24% | +313 |
| Caleb Douglas (MIA WR) | 23% | +333 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones (IND) | 195 | 10% |
| Malik Willis (MIA) | 190 | 9% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND RB) | 68 | 19 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA RB) | 54 | |
| Caleb Douglas (MIA WR) | 50 | |
| Keenan Allen (IND WR) | 46 | |
| Tyler Warren (IND TE) | 44 | |
| Josh Downs (IND WR) | 38 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Dolphins vs Colts?
- Gridline projects the Indianapolis Colts to win 20-17, with a 60% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Dolphins vs Colts?
- Gridline's total is 37.0 against a Vegas total of 37.5, under by 0.5 points.
- Will the Colts cover the spread?
- Vegas has IND −4.5. Gridline's margin is 3.2 for the Colts, a gap of 1.3 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Miami Dolphins 2026 projections
- Indianapolis Colts 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.