Seahawks vs Raiders
Gridline projects the Seattle Seahawks to beat the Las Vegas Raiders 23-16 (71% to win). Vegas has SEA −6.5 with the total at 40.5.
Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium · Week 10, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Seahawks by 7.1 | SEA −6.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 39.6 | 40.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 42.8 | |
| Win probability | Raiders 29% · Seahawks 71% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.6 points more bullish on the Seahawks than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 40.5 by 0.9 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Sam Darnold (Seahawks) vs Fernando Mendoza (Raiders). Backup starting: Sam Darnold, Fernando Mendoza.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Seahawks -6.5 −109 (LowVig); Raiders +6.5 −101 (LowVig); over 40.5 −104 (LowVig); under 40.5 −108 (DraftKings).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) | 44% | +125 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV RB) | 39% | +156 |
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA RB) | 38% | +164 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB) | 37% | +173 |
| Brock Bowers (LV TE) | 34% | +197 |
| Jadarian Price (SEA RB) | 30% | +239 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza (LV) | 197 | 10% |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | 218 | 14% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) | 91 | |
| Brock Bowers (LV TE) | 66 | |
| Emanuel Wilson (SEA RB) | 58 | |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB) | 54 | |
| Jadarian Price (SEA RB) | 44 | |
| Tre Tucker (LV WR) | 44 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Seahawks vs Raiders?
- Gridline projects the Seattle Seahawks to win 23-16, with a 71% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Seahawks vs Raiders?
- Gridline's total is 39.6 against a Vegas total of 40.5, under by 0.9 points.
- Will the Seahawks cover the spread?
- Vegas has SEA −6.5. Gridline's margin is 7.1 for the Seahawks, a gap of 0.6 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 10 predictions
- Seattle Seahawks 2026 projections
- Las Vegas Raiders 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.