Does Wind Affect NFL Over/Unders?
Yes, but less than most bettors think, and the closing total already prices most of it. Wind only starts to matter around 10 to 15 mph.
Unders by kickoff wind
| Kickoff wind | Games | Under hit |
|---|---|---|
| 0–9 mph | 2,029 | 48% |
| 10–14 mph | 710 | 55% |
| 15–19 mph | 286 | 56% |
| 20–24 mph | 69 | 44% |
| 25+ mph | 17 | 88% |
Outdoor regular season games, measured against the closing total, pushes excluded.
What it means
- Calm games (under 10 mph) go over slightly more often than under.
- From 10 to 19 mph, unders have hit about 55 to 56% against the close: a real but modest edge, and only before the market fully moves.
- The 20+ mph buckets are small samples; don't read much into them.
- Wind of 15+ mph has cost starting quarterbacks about 20 passing yards in Gridline's player model; rushing barely moves.
- Gusts matter for kicking and deep throws, but forecasts and models use sustained wind.
More research
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.