Do NFL Injuries Beat the Spread?
Not against the line. Vegas prices the injury report before kickoff, and a team's recent form already reflects players who have been out.
The test
Gridline counted regular starters ruled Out or Doubtful by position group. We tried weighting each absence by the player's snap share over the previous four games, and by targets plus carries for receivers and running backs.
| Version | Spread avg miss | ATS, 3+ pt gap | Total leans 1.5+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Count of starters out | 10.04 | 54.8% | 54.4% |
| No injury data at all | 10.03 | 55.1% | 54.2% |
| Snap-share weighted | 10.06 | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| Snap share + skill opportunity | 10.06 | 54.9% | 55.4% |
What the model learned anyway
- A receiver or back with a quarter of his team's targets and carries is worth about 2.3 points.
- An every-down linebacker is worth about 2.1 points; an offensive lineman about 0.3.
- Those values are real, but the betting line already contains them.
More research
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.