Does a Better Record Cover the Spread?
No. Records predict who wins, but the spread already accounts for them. The better-record team covered 49.9% of the time (2,019 games, week 4 on).
Findings
- Record gap vs final margin: correlation 0.34. Record gap vs the Vegas line: 0.73. The market follows records more closely than results do.
- Win-percentage gap of .400 or more: the better team covered only 48.7%.
- Better record but getting points: 51.1% (419 games), noise.
- Record gap vs where Gridline's market-adjusted model missed: −0.01. Nothing left to capture.
More research
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.