Live win chances
Today's games with live scores, Courtline's chance that each team wins from here, and a check for any live moneyline you are looking at. Type the price your book shows and see whether it is worth it right now.
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Any score, any clock
If live scores do not load, or you want to ask "what if", set the game state by hand.
How the live chance works
The rest of a basketball game behaves a lot like a random walk. The live chance starts from the current margin, adds the pregame expected margin for the share of the game still to play, and allows less and less room for swings as the clock runs down. The weights were fitted on 2,885,589 real game states from 7,898 games (2019–26), using the closing spread as the pregame expectation.
Tested on 1,315 games from 2025–26 that it was not trained on, it called the eventual winner 71% of the time during the 1st quarter and 89% during the 4th. When it said a team had a given chance, that team won about that often:
| Courtline said | Game states | Average | Home team won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 62,592 | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| 10–20% | 37,848 | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| 20–30% | 37,800 | 25.0% | 26.4% |
| 30–40% | 37,295 | 35.0% | 38.1% |
| 40–50% | 35,751 | 45.0% | 48.2% |
| 50–60% | 37,882 | 55.0% | 55.5% |
| 60–70% | 42,586 | 65.1% | 64.7% |
| 70–80% | 49,862 | 75.1% | 73.6% |
| 80–90% | 56,342 | 85.1% | 83.7% |
| 90–100% | 91,651 | 96.4% | 97.8% |
| Quarter | Picked winner | Brier score |
|---|---|---|
| 1st quarter | 70.7% | 0.191 |
| 2nd quarter | 74.2% | 0.169 |
| 3rd quarter | 79.9% | 0.136 |
| 4th quarter | 88.8% | 0.079 |
Brier score is the average squared miss of the chance (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). What it does not know: who has the ball, fouls to give, timeouts, injuries during the game, or a team resting its starters in a blowout. The last minute or two of a close game moves faster than any model, and live prices can change before you place a bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.