Vikings vs 49ers
Gridline projects the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-20 (73% to win). Vegas has SF −3.5 with the total at 45.5.
Sun Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET · Estadio Banorte · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | 49ers by 7.8 | SF −3.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 46.9 | 45.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 44.7 | |
| Win probability | 49ers 73% · Vikings 27% |
- Spread: Gridline is 4.3 points more bullish on the 49ers than Vegas. That clears the 3-point gap where the stats model went 54.8% against the spread in 2018 to 2025, a best case; spreads have no proven edge.
- Total: over 45.5 by 1.4 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins (Vikings) vs Brock Purdy (49ers). Backup starting: Kirk Cousins.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Vikings +4.5 −110 (FanDuel); 49ers -3.5 −110 (BetUS); over 45.5 −109 (BetRivers); under 46 −110 (MyBookie).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF RB) | 55% | −124 |
| George Kittle (SF TE) | 34% | +198 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN WR) | 33% | +204 |
| Aaron Jones (MIN RB) | 32% | +209 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN RB) | 24% | +310 |
| Kaelon Black (SF RB) | 24% | +326 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 229 | 17% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey (SF RB) | 59 | 36 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN WR) | 60 | |
| George Kittle (SF TE) | 56 | |
| Kaelon Black (SF RB) | 43 | |
| Jordan Addison (MIN WR) | 40 | |
| Jordan Watkins (SF WR) | 35 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Vikings vs 49ers?
- Gridline projects the San Francisco 49ers to win 27-20, with a 73% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Vikings vs 49ers?
- Gridline's total is 46.9 against a Vegas total of 45.5, over by 1.4 points.
- Will the 49ers cover the spread?
- Vegas has SF −3.5. Gridline's margin is 7.8 for the 49ers, a gap of 4.3 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Minnesota Vikings 2026 projections
- San Francisco 49ers 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.