Titans vs Cowboys
Gridline projects the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Tennessee Titans 31-20 (80% to win). Vegas has DAL −7.5 with the total at 50.5.
Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · AT&T Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Cowboys by 10.5 | DAL −7.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 50.8 | 50.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 50.2 | |
| Win probability | Cowboys 80% · Titans 20% |
- Spread: Gridline is 3.0 points more bullish on the Cowboys than Vegas. That clears the 3-point gap where the stats model went 54.8% against the spread in 2018 to 2025, a best case; spreads have no proven edge.
- Total: over 50.5 by 0.3 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Cam Ward (Titans) vs Dak Prescott (Cowboys).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Titans +8 −110 (MyBookie); Cowboys -7.5 −110 (LowVig); over 50 −107 (LowVig); under 51.5 −110 (DraftKings).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (DAL RB) | 56% | −129 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN RB) | 50% | −102 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR) | 48% | +110 |
| George Pickens (DAL WR) | 36% | +179 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN WR) | 31% | +221 |
| Ryan Flournoy (DAL WR) | 30% | +233 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 276 | 34% |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | 208 | 12% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR) | 95 | |
| Tony Pollard (TEN RB) | 79 | 12 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL RB) | 73 | |
| George Pickens (DAL WR) | 66 | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN WR) | 52 | |
| Elic Ayomanor (TEN WR) | 34 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Titans vs Cowboys?
- Gridline projects the Dallas Cowboys to win 31-20, with a 80% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Titans vs Cowboys?
- Gridline's total is 50.8 against a Vegas total of 50.5, over by 0.3 points.
- Will the Cowboys cover the spread?
- Vegas has DAL −7.5. Gridline's margin is 10.5 for the Cowboys, a gap of 3.0 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Tennessee Titans 2026 projections
- Dallas Cowboys 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.