Steelers vs Eagles
Gridline projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Philadelphia Eagles 21-16 (65% to win). Vegas has PIT −4.5 with the total at 38.5.
Sun Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Steelers by 4.9 | PIT −4.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 37.5 | 38.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 37.1 | |
| Win probability | Eagles 35% · Steelers 65% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.4 points more bullish on the Steelers than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 38.5 by 1.0 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) vs Joe Milton III (Eagles). Backup starting: Joe Milton III.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Steelers -4.5 −105 (LowVig); Eagles +4.5 −105 (LowVig); over 38.5 −107 (LowVig); under 38.5 −105 (FanDuel).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (PIT RB) | 40% | +151 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI RB) | 33% | +205 |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT RB) | 30% | +233 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT WR) | 25% | +305 |
| Dameon Pierce (PHI RB) | 23% | +335 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE) | 22% | +344 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Milton III (PHI) | 196 | 10% |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | 202 | 11% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren (PIT RB) | 84 | |
| DK Metcalf (PIT WR) | 50 | |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI RB) | 47 | |
| Rico Dowdle (PIT RB) | 47 | |
| Makai Lemon (PHI WR) | 44 | |
| Germie Bernard (PIT WR) | 42 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Steelers vs Eagles?
- Gridline projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to win 21-16, with a 65% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Steelers vs Eagles?
- Gridline's total is 37.5 against a Vegas total of 38.5, under by 1.0 points.
- Will the Steelers cover the spread?
- Vegas has PIT −4.5. Gridline's margin is 4.9 for the Steelers, a gap of 0.4 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 projections
- Philadelphia Eagles 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.