Saints vs Bears
Gridline projects the Chicago Bears to beat the New Orleans Saints 29-20 (76% to win). Vegas has CHI −9.5 with the total at 49.
Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Bears by 9.1 | CHI −9.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 48.7 | 49 |
| Total (stats only) | 45.9 | |
| Win probability | Bears 76% · Saints 24% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.4 points more bullish on the Saints than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 49 by 0.3 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Tyler Shough (Saints) vs Caleb Williams (Bears).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Saints +9.5 −105 (FanDuel); Bears -9 −105 (LowVig); over 48.5 −110 (DraftKings); under 49.5 −115 (FanDuel).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (CHI RB) | 55% | −122 |
| Luther Burden III (CHI WR) | 37% | +172 |
| Colston Loveland (CHI TE) | 35% | +187 |
| Chris Olave (NO WR) | 31% | +223 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI WR) | 30% | +232 |
| Audric Estime (NO RB) | 28% | +252 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 251 | 24% |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | 225 | 16% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave (NO WR) | 76 | |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI RB) | 65 | |
| Luther Burden III (CHI WR) | 65 | |
| Colston Loveland (CHI TE) | 55 | |
| Rome Odunze (CHI WR) | 55 | |
| Devaughn Vele (NO WR) | 42 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Saints vs Bears?
- Gridline projects the Chicago Bears to win 29-20, with a 76% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Saints vs Bears?
- Gridline's total is 48.7 against a Vegas total of 49, under by 0.3 points.
- Will the Bears cover the spread?
- Vegas has CHI −9.5. Gridline's margin is 9.1 for the Bears, a gap of 0.4 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- New Orleans Saints 2026 projections
- Chicago Bears 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.