Raiders vs Broncos
Gridline projects the Denver Broncos to beat the Las Vegas Raiders 26-14 (82% to win). Vegas has DEN −8.5 with the total at 41.5.
Sun Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Broncos by 11.8 | DEN −8.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 40.4 | 41.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 43.7 | |
| Win probability | Broncos 82% · Raiders 18% |
- Spread: Gridline is 3.3 points more bullish on the Broncos than Vegas. That clears the 3-point gap where the stats model went 54.8% against the spread in 2018 to 2025, a best case; spreads have no proven edge.
- Total: under 41.5 by 1.1 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Fernando Mendoza (Raiders) vs Bo Nix (Broncos). Backup starting: Fernando Mendoza.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Raiders +8.5 −110 (DraftKings); Broncos -7.5 −120 (FanDuel); over 40.5 −115 (FanDuel); under 41.5 −107 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jonah Coleman (DEN RB) | 48% | +106 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV RB) | 37% | +167 |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB) | 33% | +204 |
| Brock Bowers (LV TE) | 32% | +213 |
| Jaylen Waddle (DEN WR) | 28% | +260 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN WR) | 27% | +265 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix (DEN) | 208 | 12% |
| Fernando Mendoza (LV) | 197 | 10% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers (LV TE) | 67 | |
| Jonah Coleman (DEN RB) | 60 | |
| Tre Tucker (LV WR) | 44 | |
| Jaylen Waddle (DEN WR) | 43 | |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN WR) | 42 | |
| Mike Washington Jr. (LV RB) | 34 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Raiders vs Broncos?
- Gridline projects the Denver Broncos to win 26-14, with a 82% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Raiders vs Broncos?
- Gridline's total is 40.4 against a Vegas total of 41.5, under by 1.1 points.
- Will the Broncos cover the spread?
- Vegas has DEN −8.5. Gridline's margin is 11.8 for the Broncos, a gap of 3.3 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Las Vegas Raiders 2026 projections
- Denver Broncos 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.