Jets vs Chargers
Gridline projects the Los Angeles Chargers to beat the New York Jets 22-22 (51% to win). Vegas has LAC −1.5 with the total at 43.
Sun Nov 22, 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Chargers by 0.4 | LAC −1.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 43.5 | 43 |
| Total (stats only) | 43.9 | |
| Win probability | Chargers 51% · Jets 49% |
- Spread: Gridline is 1.1 points more bullish on the Jets than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: over 43 by 0.5 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Geno Smith (Jets) vs Justin Herbert (Chargers).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Jets +1.5 −110 (DraftKings); Chargers +0 −110 (BetUS); over 42.5 −110 (DraftKings); under 43.5 −115 (FanDuel).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ RB) | 39% | +158 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC RB) | 35% | +187 |
| Braelon Allen (NYJ RB) | 34% | +196 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR) | 31% | +218 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ WR) | 30% | +238 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC RB) | 26% | +289 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 208 | 12% |
| Geno Smith (NYJ) | 217 | 14% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen (NYJ RB) | 62 | |
| Omar Cooper Jr. (NYJ WR) | 62 | |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR) | 60 | |
| Breece Hall (NYJ RB) | 59 | |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC RB) | 52 | |
| Adonai Mitchell (NYJ WR) | 46 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Jets vs Chargers?
- Gridline projects the Los Angeles Chargers to win 22-22, with a 51% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Jets vs Chargers?
- Gridline's total is 43.5 against a Vegas total of 43, over by 0.5 points.
- Will the Chargers cover the spread?
- Vegas has LAC −1.5. Gridline's margin is 0.4 for the Chargers, a gap of 1.1 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- New York Jets 2026 projections
- Los Angeles Chargers 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.