Jaguars vs Giants
Gridline projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the New York Giants 27-17 (77% to win). Vegas has JAX −6 with the total at 44.5.
Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Jaguars by 9.4 | JAX −6 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 43.7 | 44.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 42.5 | |
| Win probability | Giants 23% · Jaguars 77% |
- Spread: Gridline is 3.4 points more bullish on the Jaguars than Vegas. That clears the 3-point gap where the stats model went 54.8% against the spread in 2018 to 2025, a best case; spreads have no proven edge.
- Total: under 44.5 by 0.8 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) vs J.J. McCarthy (Giants). Backup starting: J.J. McCarthy.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Jaguars -6 −110 (DraftKings); Giants +6.5 −110 (FanDuel); over 44.5 −110 (DraftKings); under 44.5 −105 (FanDuel).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB) | 40% | +153 |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG RB) | 38% | +163 |
| Parker Washington (JAX WR) | 35% | +188 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX RB) | 32% | +217 |
| Isaiah Likely (NYG TE) | 30% | +230 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG WR) | 29% | +248 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | 223 | 16% |
| J.J. McCarthy (NYG) | 235 | 19% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers (NYG WR) | 71 | |
| Parker Washington (JAX WR) | 59 | |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB) | 57 | |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG RB) | 57 | |
| Isaiah Likely (NYG TE) | 55 | |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAX WR) | 47 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Jaguars vs Giants?
- Gridline projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to win 27-17, with a 77% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Jaguars vs Giants?
- Gridline's total is 43.7 against a Vegas total of 44.5, under by 0.8 points.
- Will the Jaguars cover the spread?
- Vegas has JAX −6. Gridline's margin is 9.4 for the Jaguars, a gap of 3.4 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 projections
- New York Giants 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.