Dolphins vs Bills
Gridline projects the Buffalo Bills to beat the Miami Dolphins 31-16 (87% to win). Vegas has BUF −16.5 with the total at 46.5.
Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Bills by 14.5 | BUF −16.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 46.7 | 46.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 46.6 | |
| Win probability | Bills 87% · Dolphins 13% |
- Spread: Gridline is 2.0 points more bullish on the Dolphins than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: over 46.5 by 0.2 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Malik Willis (Dolphins) vs Josh Allen (Bills).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Dolphins +16.5 −105 (LowVig); Bills -16.5 −105 (LowVig); over 46.5 −105 (FanDuel); under 46.5 −107 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF RB) | 56% | −125 |
| DJ Moore (BUF WR) | 36% | +182 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF WR) | 32% | +210 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE) | 32% | +212 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF WR) | 31% | +221 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA RB) | 28% | +264 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 244 | 21% |
| Malik Willis (MIA) | 179 | 8% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF RB) | 89 | |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF WR) | 53 | |
| Caleb Douglas (MIA WR) | 51 | |
| DJ Moore (BUF WR) | 48 | |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA RB) | 48 | |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF TE) | 45 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Dolphins vs Bills?
- Gridline projects the Buffalo Bills to win 31-16, with a 87% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Dolphins vs Bills?
- Gridline's total is 46.7 against a Vegas total of 46.5, over by 0.2 points.
- Will the Bills cover the spread?
- Vegas has BUF −16.5. Gridline's margin is 14.5 for the Bills, a gap of 2.0 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Miami Dolphins 2026 projections
- Buffalo Bills 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.