Colts vs Texans
Gridline projects the Houston Texans to beat the Indianapolis Colts 26-18 (72% to win). Vegas has HOU −10 with the total at 43.5.
Thu Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET · Reliant Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Texans by 7.6 | HOU −10 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 43.9 | 43.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 47.7 | |
| Win probability | Texans 72% · Colts 28% |
- Spread: Gridline is 2.4 points more bullish on the Colts than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: over 43.5 by 0.4 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (Colts) vs C.J. Stroud (Texans).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Colts +10 −105 (LowVig); Texans -9.5 −115 (FanDuel); over 43.5 +100 (FanDuel); under 44.5 −110 (DraftKings).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND RB) | 46% | +116 |
| Woody Marks (HOU RB) | 41% | +142 |
| Nico Collins (HOU WR) | 36% | +180 |
| Tank Dell (HOU WR) | 32% | +212 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU WR) | 31% | +227 |
| Jawhar Jordan (HOU RB) | 30% | +233 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | 262 | 28% |
| Daniel Jones (IND) | 193 | 10% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND RB) | 61 | 18 |
| Woody Marks (HOU RB) | 57 | |
| Nico Collins (HOU WR) | 57 | |
| Tank Dell (HOU WR) | 54 | |
| Keenan Allen (IND WR) | 46 | |
| Tyler Warren (IND TE) | 43 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Colts vs Texans?
- Gridline projects the Houston Texans to win 26-18, with a 72% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Colts vs Texans?
- Gridline's total is 43.9 against a Vegas total of 43.5, over by 0.4 points.
- Will the Texans cover the spread?
- Vegas has HOU −10. Gridline's margin is 7.6 for the Texans, a gap of 2.4 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Indianapolis Colts 2026 projections
- Houston Texans 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.