Cardinals vs Chiefs
Gridline projects the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Arizona Cardinals 28-14 (86% to win). Vegas has KC −14.5 with the total at 42.
Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Chiefs by 14.1 | KC −14.5 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 42.3 | 42 |
| Total (stats only) | 44.2 | |
| Win probability | Chiefs 86% · Cardinals 14% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.4 points more bullish on the Cardinals than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: over 42 by 0.3 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Quarterbacks: Gardner Minshew (Cardinals) vs Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs). Backup starting: Gardner Minshew.
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Cardinals +14.5 −105 (LowVig); Chiefs -14 −110 (DraftKings); over 41.5 −115 (FanDuel); under 42.5 −115 (DraftKings).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) | 59% | −146 |
| Rashee Rice (KC WR) | 38% | +166 |
| Travis Kelce (KC TE) | 34% | +195 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC WR) | 28% | +252 |
| Trey McBride (ARI TE) | 26% | +289 |
| Jeremiyah Love (ARI RB) | 23% | +327 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew (ARI) | 211 | 13% |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 240 | 20% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) | 97 | 23 |
| Rashee Rice (KC WR) | 62 | |
| Trey McBride (ARI TE) | 59 | |
| Michael Wilson (ARI WR) | 57 | |
| Travis Kelce (KC TE) | 50 | |
| Tyler Allgeier (ARI RB) | 42 | 6 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Cardinals vs Chiefs?
- Gridline projects the Kansas City Chiefs to win 28-14, with a 86% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Cardinals vs Chiefs?
- Gridline's total is 42.3 against a Vegas total of 42, over by 0.3 points.
- Will the Chiefs cover the spread?
- Vegas has KC −14.5. Gridline's margin is 14.1 for the Chiefs, a gap of 0.4 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Arizona Cardinals 2026 projections
- Kansas City Chiefs 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.