Buccaneers vs Lions
Gridline projects the Detroit Lions to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-21 (68% to win). Vegas has DET −3 with the total at 47.5.
Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Lions by 6.0 | DET −3 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 48.5 | 47.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 47.8 | |
| Win probability | Lions 68% · Buccaneers 32% |
- Spread: Gridline is 3.0 points more bullish on the Lions than Vegas. That clears the 3-point gap where the stats model went 54.8% against the spread in 2018 to 2025, a best case; spreads have no proven edge.
- Total: over 47.5 by 1.0 points. Under the 1.5-point lean threshold, so no play.
- Weather: indoors.
- Quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) vs Jared Goff (Lions).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Buccaneers +3.5 −113 (BetRivers); Lions -3 +100 (BetUS); over 47.5 −107 (LowVig); under 47.5 −107 (LowVig).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB) | 60% | −149 |
| Bucky Irving (TB RB) | 50% | +100 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) | 41% | +143 |
| Jameson Williams (DET WR) | 32% | +208 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB WR) | 30% | +228 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET TE) | 30% | +237 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff (DET) | 257 | 26% |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 194 | 10% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) | 83 | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET RB) | 82 | |
| Bucky Irving (TB RB) | 73 | |
| Jameson Williams (DET WR) | 54 | |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB WR) | 49 | |
| Sam LaPorta (DET TE) | 46 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Buccaneers vs Lions?
- Gridline projects the Detroit Lions to win 27-21, with a 68% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Buccaneers vs Lions?
- Gridline's total is 48.5 against a Vegas total of 47.5, over by 1.0 points.
- Will the Lions cover the spread?
- Vegas has DET −3. Gridline's margin is 6.0 for the Lions, a gap of 3.0 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 projections
- Detroit Lions 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.