Bengals vs Commanders
Gridline projects the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the Washington Commanders 27-23 (63% to win). Vegas has CIN −4 with the total at 51.5.
Mon Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET · Northwest Stadium · Week 11, 2026 NFL season
Gridline vs Vegas
| Gridline | Vegas | |
|---|---|---|
| Projected margin | Bengals by 4.2 | CIN −4 |
| Total (Vegas + model adjustments) | 49.8 | 51.5 |
| Total (stats only) | 47.5 | |
| Win probability | Commanders 37% · Bengals 63% |
- Spread: Gridline is 0.2 points more bullish on the Bengals than Vegas. That is under the 3-point gap the model needs, so it is no play.
- Total: under 51.5 by 1.7 points. A 1.5+ point lean, the setup that went 55.1% in 2018 to 2025 (a best case).
- Quarterbacks: Joe Burrow (Bengals) vs Jayden Daniels (Commanders).
- Best numbers at the books (as of Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM ET): Bengals -3.5 −115 (DraftKings); Commanders +4.5 −120 (FanDuel); over 51 −110 (BetUS); under 51.5 −110 (DraftKings).
Player props
Anytime touchdown
| Player | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown (CIN RB) | 46% | +117 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR) | 44% | +126 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN WR) | 40% | +150 |
| Stefon Diggs (WAS WR) | 32% | +209 |
| Rachaad White (WAS RB) | 29% | +248 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN TE) | 28% | +258 |
Passing yards
| QB | Projection | 300+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 279 | 36% |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | 223 | 15% |
Rushing and receiving yards
| Player | Rushing | Receiving |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown (CIN RB) | 60 | 30 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR) | 85 | |
| Tee Higgins (CIN WR) | 73 | |
| Stefon Diggs (WAS WR) | 54 | |
| Chig Okonkwo (WAS TE) | 43 | |
| Rachaad White (WAS RB) | 40 |
Fair odds are the price where a bet would break even at Gridline's chance. The player model is graded against results but has not yet been tested against sportsbook prop lines.
Questions
- Who will win Bengals vs Commanders?
- Gridline projects the Cincinnati Bengals to win 27-23, with a 63% chance to win outright.
- What is the over/under prediction for Bengals vs Commanders?
- Gridline's total is 49.8 against a Vegas total of 51.5, under by 1.7 points.
- Will the Bengals cover the spread?
- Vegas has CIN −4. Gridline's margin is 4.2 for the Bengals, a gap of 0.2 points from the line.
- How accurate is Gridline?
- Through Nov 12, Gridline has picked 91-45 straight up and 68-63 against the spread in 137 graded 2026 games, with total leans of 1.5+ points at 23-15.
More
- All Week 11 predictions
- Cincinnati Bengals 2026 projections
- Washington Commanders 2026 projections
- Season board with live odds and the matchup calculator to change the QBs, weather or injuries
Projections are research, not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.